Adobe predicts record-breaking online sales as AI, mobile shopping, and BNPL reshape e-commerce trends
The 2025 U.S. holiday shopping season is set to reach $253.4 billion in online sales, a 5.3% increase from last year, according to Adobe Analytics. This forecast comes from analyzing over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites and 100 million SKUs across 18 product categories, giving Adobe deep insight into consumer behavior and e-commerce trends.
Cyber Monday is expected to be the biggest shopping day, with sales hitting $14.2 billion, up 6.3% year-over-year, while Black Friday is projected at $11.7 billion, up 8.3%. Even Thanksgiving Day online sales will reach $6.4 billion, up 4.9%, as holiday shopping starts earlier.
A standout trend this year is AI-assisted shopping, predicted to grow 520% compared with 2024. Adobe reports that consumers will increasingly use generative AI to research products, get recommendations, find deals, and find gift inspiration. Categories like toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care are expected to see the highest AI-driven engagement.
Mobile devices continue to dominate, expected to account for a record 56.1% of online transactions, up from 54.5% in 2024, while buy now, pay later (BNPL) services will drive $20.2 billion in online spend, an 11% increase year-over-year. Cyber Monday alone is expected to reach $1.04 billion in BNPL sales.
Social media advertising is also set to accelerate sales, with online revenue from social platforms predicted to rise 51% year-over-year, a significant jump from last year’s 5% growth.
Top product categories for this holiday season include electronics ($57.5B, up 4%), apparel ($47.6B, up 4.4%), and furniture ($31.1B, up 6.5%), reflecting strong consumer demand across both traditional and emerging online shopping trends.
As AI, mobile, and BNPL reshape holiday shopping, retailers are preparing for one of the largest e-commerce seasons in U.S. history.
